The Hopeful Tiger Year 2010 ?

The 2010 Tiger seems to bring possible opportunities in the property market - albeit risky ones - if historical record hold true. Tiger Years are typically good years to invest but this year could hold full of hope and anticipation as the market recovers from one of Singapore's steepest recessions.

Some agree the Singapore economy expected to expand between 3-5 per cent by year end and may present opportunities for investors to buy in anticipation of a price recovery. But the element of risk remains. Like the tiger, the market is likely to remain active for the first half, but the second half of 2010 remains unpredictable. Although property prices have already reached a high level in the past 12 months, the prospect of further increases would be tempting to some investors. However, further price growth would also bring higher risks of a correction.

The last Tiger Year came around in 1998, smack in the middle of the Asian financial crisis. Then, the property price index for private homes shrank 34 per cent over 12 months. There was a very pessimistic mood at the start of 1998 in the property market.

But by the Chinese New Year of 1999, people were optimistic again. The market rebounded from Q1 1999 and, over the next two years, prices rose more than 40 per cent on the back of strong pent-up demand, increased investor confidence and a global IT boom.

Twelve years before that, in 1986, Singapore was in the midst of another crisis.

That Year of the Tiger (1986) came after the 1984-85 economic recession, which was exacerbated by the collapse of Pan-Electric. The property market dived to the lowest point in Q2 1986. But it then made a remarkable, long recovery over the next 10 years until May 1996 (when anti-speculation measures were introduced by the government), with prices rising more than five times. [ Maybe, I should take a side-step look at the car COE prices, which probably behave the same phenomena effect of rise and fall ? ]]

Similar history applies to 1974. The global oil crisis hit Singapore that year - the first major economic crisis the island had to weather post-independence. But property prices then went on to rise steadily from 1974. Over the next seven years until 1981, prices of residential properties rose more than four times.

IT seems that the Year of the Tiger has historically been linked to tumult and upheaval.

Relooking back the last century showed that almost every year of the ferocious Cat has been accompanied by either market downturn, wars, or crises of other forms. In many cases, the markets walked into crises in a Tiger year, while on some occasions, they climbed out of turmoil.

As the world now stands on the brink of yet another Tiger year, the top questions on every market player's mind are: Is there an Asian property bubble in the making and is the equity rally over.

On property, the consensus is that although markets have rebounded, they still fall short of the dizzying heights seen during the 2006-2007 years.

On equity, markets posted spectacular gains in 2009, but the increases only offset some of the outsized losses that were registered during the preceding year. Likewise, China is not experiencing a property bubble as compare to what you can see with much higher prices in Australia and or Hong Kong and lately the Chinese government stepped in to cool down the market.

Indeed, analysts felt that most Asian stock indexes remain well below peaks that were reached in 2007 and although forward-looking price-earnings ratios in Asia may have gone up a lot, they are not at levels yet that most would associate with asset bubbles.

Plus, the governments will be looking at signs of asset inflation in property sectors, in particular. Any selldown should give yield-buying opportunities as markets would eventually get used to the idea that governments are not going to over-tighten. Market watchers believe that the 10-month rally which started last year has already ended and stocks are now seemed to be in a correction phase rightly or not.

This came as risk appetite for Asian equities has sunk due to credit tightening in China, while equities have priced in the V-shaped recovery. At current environment, an overweight position could see the Singapore market and a year-end Straits Times Index target of 3,200.

Be aware of valuations, avoid well-known themes and search for value laggards. OCBC Investment Research believes that 'smart money will take note of the more reasonable valuations now and will be ready to re-enter the market'. Some estimates are that Singapore's economy shrank 2.1 per cent last year, while growth of between 3 and 5 per cent is expected for 2010, and private sector economists are even more bullish.

But leading indicators from a recent BT-UniSIM study showed that the present recovery may look more like 1986's gradual recovery, even though it lasted about as long as the crisis of 1998.

This Tiger year brings political uncertainties too. Economists say oil price spikes, a top risk in 2010 according to the World Economic Forum's recent report, could be triggered by a conflict in the Middle East.
And for the global economy, looming concerns over the withdrawal of stimulus plans and sovereign debt persist.

Shield your savings from a double-dip recession....

Question: You are in your 60s, soon to retire or getting the golden handshake from your boss and have some amount of money in your retirement accounts. You may want to liquidate most of your holdings and put the proceeds in money market funds or maybe an annuity, as you fears the political situation will lead to another recession.


Answer: If you're asking whether if it is right about your concerns that the political situation will lead to another recession, then the answer is, Who knows?

Considering the beating it's taken, the economy seems to be bouncing back pretty well so far. The recovery at this stage looks as strong as the recoveries after severe recessions in the early 70s and early 80s. That said, the news as the economy climbs out of a recession, particularly a severe one, is usually mixed reaction with both positive and negative developments. So it's hard to say at this point whether the recovery could stall or even reverse, whether due to the global political situation, deteriorating fundamentals or both.

Whether it is right to liquidate your mutual fund portfolio and essentially hunker down in cash and an annuity because of fears, the more direct answer: No, that doesn't sound like a very good idea.

One reason is that, as a rule, investors should not make drastic moves with their investments. Radical shifts are usually triggered by the gut, not the head, and acting on emotional impulse is a notoriously bad way to handle your money.

Besides, even if your actions are based on rationale rather than emotion, there are doubts about such planned move. Getting it right when predicting trends in the economy is difficult even for economists. So for any investment strategy in such a heavy-handed manner to make a bet on one particular economic scenario playing out is seen as not very prudent.

It's a mistake to let emotions dictate your investment strategy, you should take them into account when investing money. You can't live your life feeling you're teetering on the precipice of financial disaster. So if it is really some concern about the damage your retirement portfolio might sustain if the market heads south, we ought to address those concerns, but in a more thoughtful, methodical way.

Invest for the long-term

Say you are in your late 60s then you're looking to your investments to support you throughout retirement, which, given your age could easily be another 20 or more years.

That means that, unless you've got a ton of money socked away, putting virtually all of it in cash (the annuity excepted) would probably make it difficult for you to get sufficient income that will both last the rest of your lives and stand up to inflation over the long run.

In short, it's very likely that you should be investing at least some of your stash in a diversified portfolio of stocks and bonds that can generate some long-term growth. The trick is to get some growth, but not so much that your stomach flutters every time the Dow takes a hundred-point dive.

Achieving this balance of growth and safety will depend, among other things, on how much income you need from your investments, your tolerance for watching your portfolio's value fluctuate and how much room you have for paring living expenses should investment values take a hit.

Now, about that annuity. Making an immediate annuity part of your retirement portfolio could make sense in your situation for two reasons. First, the steady income, which you get regardless of what the market is doing, may allay some of your anxiety about the economy and the markets. That, in turn, may make you less apt to batten down the hatches in cash and more inclined to devote at least a portion of the portfolio to investments that can generate growth.

Second, combining an immediate annuity with traditional assets like stock and bond funds can actually help your retirement savings last longer, which is a definite plus for retirees.

The bottom line is that whatever you end up doing, you should do it based not on some vague notion of what the political situation may do to the economy. Rather, you should make a plan after considering several alternatives and seeing what effect those different choices might have on your ability to live off your investments the rest of your life.

Year 2010 buy on weakness, sell on strength ???

“Small timers” & "part-time" investors should throw away the thought of the “buy and hold” approach as increasing volatility may lead to a proliferation of pullbacks which could erase your potential gains for the year 2010 market situation. Instead, we may take the recent correction opportunity to buy into markets, say some strategists.

Some says: Buy on weakness, sell on strength. There will be two to three corrections in 2010 but also opportunities. It seems that the market appreciation isn't completely behind us, but it's getting more volatile. Looking at the current trend, we may have to focus on the cyclical and tactical calls.

Some says that equity valuations had looked 'fair' in the beginning of the year, and now look 'more interesting' in Asia following the recent market pullback.

'We're talking of a proliferation of pullbacks. This will be the case in 2010. If you have positions with a gain of 10 or 20 per cent, be disciplined and sell. You'll have another pullback and another entry level. 'When we see that emerging market valuations are higher than developed markets, we'd cut down on buying. Hopefully this will lead to a promising strategy.'

The market correction over the last month has reversed the year's early gains, and on a year-to-date basis, most markets are in the red. Some emerging markets are down by more than 10 per cent. EPFR Global, which tracks fund flows, reports that emerging markets saw the worst outflows in 24 weeks in February.

Still, redemptions from money market funds continued despite the uncertainty. 'The fact investors have pulled nearly US$80 billion out of this fund group during the first month of the year suggests the desire to put money to work.

The outlook seems to be forecasting a “bull” on emerging markets in the medium to long term, as their share of global GDP is expected to rise from the current significantly over the next five years.

The current average portfolio allocation to emerging markets for a global investor is about 10 per cent. This could rise to 30 per cent in five years. That means a strong chance for those potential buyers to watch out for the “dips” to build up their portfolio positions.

The current market weakness could be an 'excellent' buying opportunity, as emerging market stocks are expected to deliver a 'sub-par' performance in the near term, due to momentary strength in the US dollar.

Some of the positive underpinnings to a buy stance are: 'The macroeconomic environment continues to improve; valuation readings are already back in undervalued territory thanks to growing corporate profits and the latest markdowns in share prices; markets are oversold; and there are few viable investment alternatives.'

The markets are unlikely to re-test previous lows. 'We're pretty convinced that we're not back in a sustainable bull market . . . We think that over the next one to three years, the cyclical markets with sideways volatility will go on. Risky assets are well backed up and there is limited downside. (Investors) who missed the rally in 2009 will try to step back into the market for more healthy strategic allocations.'

Credit Suisse remains 'moderately overweight' on risk assets, particularly equities and corporate bonds. It also has an overweight call on gold.
Deutsche Bank believes that with the transition to an 'alpha' market where there will be differentiation within and between asset classes, one way to take advantage is through 'pair' trades. This means to long one stock, asset class or market, and short another.

One example of differentiation is in markets where the corporate bond yield is lower than the dividend yield, says the bank's global chief investment strategist Helmut Kaiser. Investors could sell the bond and buy the stock and benefit with a higher income stream.

The outlook on sovereign bonds, however, is cautious, although corporate bonds still offer opportunities.
The supply of corporate paper is expected to rise as well, although the outlook for bond returns is poorer for 2011 than for 2010. The expected return on bonds is usually the coupon plus capital appreciation driven by shrinking yields. Now it's the coupon minus price depreciation driven by a moderate rise in yields.

The Rise or Fall of Internet use .......

The internet was an extraordinary invention, with the greatest potential to usher in social change since the old days of the printing press or the railway steam engine.

Built upon a technology that is not fully regulated, it empowers everyone with ability to access to the internet to be creators of information.

It is also an enormous library of global information with consciousness and knowledge from the past and the present and presented in an easy-to-access format commonly HTML.

As a result, we now have the liberty to create our own information, either personal or public, and share it with everyone across any part of the continent in this global world. It permits the equality of access that we have never seen in the past where hardcopies of information being the mainstream media in circulation.

But has its potential as a great leveller for the whole world already passed?

Twenty years ago, the web was colonised by a group of early adopters who believed that the ideal society was equal - every individual had a right to get involved, there should be no hierarchy, and rules would be mutually determined for the common intent and purpose.

People believed the sanctity of the individual was superior to that of the governing state, and that getting in touch with people from across any region in the globe would be enough to solve the world's ill intent.

But the idealistic web pioneers maintained that the new digital frontier would provide an avenue for intellectual ground on which to create a freer “information exchange” society.

The original loose approach to social behaviour online has clashed with the essential features of our nature - our desire to take control, to own and to profit.

Implicit inequalities emerged early, but once the Internet became a space for commercial gain in the mid-1990s and its population exploded, being at the top of the pile - translated as holding the first position in Google's search results - became the benchmark for offline financial returns. The vast multiplying effect and increase in content on the web during the late 1990s and throughout the last decade has meant that reliable, trustworthy and credible information is increasingly difficult to verify and certify to be genuine or true.

InterNet hope

At an individual level, we rely on colleagues, friends and family members for what to trust and what to believe, but we also look to intelligent experts and professionals with high track record status to point us in the right direction and correct use of the information in the web.
Jimmy Wales, founder of the online-user generated encyclopaedia Wikipedia, admits that despite being the current poster child of information levelling, Wikipedia has explicit hierarchies that determine whose knowledge is more worthy than others'. It seems that, for all its talk as a great leveller, the web is as unequal as we are. Indeed, despite the medium, human beings seek hierarchies to help us make sense of our world.

It turns out that this is as relevant online as offline. After all, we can only bring to this digital age what we already know and what we have gained from our existing experiences.
The search engine works on a principle of the "wisdom" of crowds, basing its results on which searched sites receive the most links to their pages. And how does this reinforce the inequalities that exist between the developed and the developing world?

Ultimately, the internet is a reflection of humanity, not a humanity-changer. We bring to it all of our other human foibles,weakness, warts and all.

Android Mobile phone storming the market ??

Lately I gotten the Samsung Galaxy and dumped the HP912C with small touch screen and keypad that makes reading and texting a bit difficult for me. The Galaxy with “faster and more powerful performance” comes with some handy features, including being the first Android phone with built-in DivX support.

For an initial rundown, the Galaxy comes with an 800 MHZ application processor, 3.2-inch HVGA touchscreen, Bluetooth 2.1 and a 3.5mm headphone jack. Phone Scoop also reports that the 13.2mm device also has quad-band GSM/EDGE and 900/2100MHz HSDPA 3G at 3.6Mbps. Then, of course, there will be the usual Google features like GMail, YouTube, Maps, Search, etc. The speed is well fast and easy to use with lots of applications to be downloaded from the store. This phone needs to sign with Iphone plan with 12G of dataplan limit per month at $30plus should be enough for usage including surfing the net,etc.

The Google Android mobile operating system seems to be catching the market by storm though currently runs on less than 2 percent of the world’s smartphones, but research firm Gartner predicts the platform will grow to 14 percent of the global smartphone market in 2012 — beating Apple’s iPhone, Windows Mobile and RIM’s BlackBerry platforms. I think partly the reason being the amount of applications available and the ease of downloading with fast speed is pulling the crowd.

Android will pale only to the Symbian OS, installed mostly on Nokia devices. Nokia is the world’s No. 1 phone manufacturer worldwide, and Symbian runs on about half of all smartphones.

Symbian’s share will fall to 39 percent by 2012, Gartner predicts.

Some reasons why Android will probably beat iPhone, BlackBerry and Windows Mobile on the global stage :

Google backs Android, a major pipeline for its cloud services. Android is improving rapidly. The Cupcake 1.5 release was well-received, and Donut 1.6 has already been sent over the air to handset owners. [ Though I have not downloaded this latest version ]

Android is open, making it easier to quickly gain developers’ support. Android will run on phones from several manufacturers, which will help it quickly spread through the marketplace. HTC ( first model the Tattoo ), Motorola ( first model the DEXT ) and Samsung are already supporting handsets.

Android combines the best of what’s out there. It’s open, but it offers iPhone-like menus and apps, with Windows Mobile-esque icons, with Palm Pre-like multitasking. There’s another arms race afoot — the battle among Android handset makers as to which company can squeeze the most out of the OS.

Gartner forecasts the following market share in 2012:

Symbian: 203 million handsets, 39 percent of the market;
Google Android: 76 million handsets, 14.5 percent of the market;
Apple iPhone OS: 71.5 million handsets, 13.7 percent of the market;
Windows Mobile: 66.8 million handsets, 12.8 percent of the market;
RIM BlackBerry OS: 65.25 million handsets, 12.5 percent of the market;
Linux variants: 28 million handsets, 5.4 percent of the market;
Palm webOS: 11 million handsets, 2.1 percent of the market.

The main takeaway: Android’s the biggest gainer of the bunch, at the expense of RIM’s BlackBerry OS.

WATCH OUT, Mr NOKIA, Your Symbian platform maybe outdated ! !

The HP 912C which I had regretfully dumped recently, though quite useful and fast, but screen size too small for me and keypad with one or two keys starting to act insensitive to pressing. China assembled product ........ compared to what the Koreans can do........ read further below..........

Latest News :   The Samsung Wave was unveiled in Barcelona ahead of Mobile World Congress - the world's largest mobile phone trade show.

The Korean manufacturer is currently the world's second largest producer of mobile phones - behind Nokia - but wants a larger share of the rapidly expanding smartphone market, which is dominated by Apple's iPhone.Samsung's latest smartphone is packed with a specification to impress. Featuring a hi-tech organic LED screen (AMOLED) which is thinner, less reflective and more energy efficient than traditional LED displays which require back-lighting.

The Wave is also the first handset to run Samsung's new open source operating system (OS) Bada and features an iTunes-style apps store for downloading games, mapping, eBooks and lifestyle applications.
Bada, which means ocean in Korean, is the latest mobile phone OS to be launched in an increasingly congested market - joining Apple's iPhone OS, Google's Android, Microsoft's Windows Mobile, Blackberry's RIM and the class leading open-source Symbian OS.