Offshore drilling activities outlook still thriving ahead 2012

Barring the outcome of the severity of recession emanating from Europe, supply and inventories are low enough to keep oil prices firm. Oil prices also will likely to hold up if governments opt to print more money in response to over-leveraged situations in the Europe and US.

From a supply/demand standpoint and from a global money situation, oil will continue to be the main driver of activity, particularly in North America, where drilling is expected to see double-digit growth, mostly in the liquids-rich and oil plays.

Due to typically slower growth rates, the international market will see growth of 6% to 9% or less. Higher natural gas prices in most international markets will support continued production in shale and other unconventional gas plays, particularly in Australia and South America.

Courtesy of Rowan N-class

The global jackup market is probably poised for a rebound, as utilization has increased from 82% to 90%, signaling a possible increase in rig pricingand most jackup activity is driven by Brent oil prices, which have remained above $100/bbl to-date.

Asia and the Middle East are the lead currently in jackup market. About 100 jackups in Asia, including India, China and Southeast Asia, which is at the high end of the historic demand market.

The nuclear disaster in Japan and moves by Germany to shut down reactors also will bolster the outlook for LNG and oil prices are the driver for international activity simply because LNG internationally tends to be priced off oil prices or some function of oil prices.

Oil will continue to be the focus of activity in the GOM, but ongoing and heightened regulations and the still-slow pace by the US government to issue permits cloud the post-Macondo picture.

A positive development has been the recent large ultra-deepwater discoveries by ExxonMobil, Chevron and BHP Billiton in the highly pressurized Lower Tertiary geological formation.

There is a return to more activities in the Gulf, with operators allocating more time and resources in the geoscience departments for future developments as a result an increase in rig rates and support for more drilling going into 2012.

The active deepwater rig count in the Gulf had moved up to more than 20 by early October, higher than it was last year but still well below pre-Macondo levels. 

ENSCO 8500 Semi Rig

There are 23 (active deepwater) rigs in the Gulf now, but there are questions about what will happen when that work is completed. There is not a pipeline of other projects with permits in place. That increases the risk that rigs could once again be realizing reduced dayrates while waiting for work. Both operators and rig owners suffer under those circumstances.

Meanwhile, new regulations mandating such activities as unannounced spill drills and stronger disclosure requirements have been implemented. On 1 October, the US Bureau of Ocean Energy Management, Regulation and Enforcement (BOEMRE) split into two agencies. The Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement (BSEE) will be responsible for inspections, enforcement and safety of offshore oil and gas operations. The Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM) will oversee energy leasing and planning on the Outer Continental Shelf (OCS), along with offshore leasing, resource evaluation, review and administration of oil and gas exploration and development plans.

The U.S. Gulf continues to thrive and grow. Witness the latest big contract going to Seadrill Offshore that's worth a whopping $4 billion for a total of 19 rig years for three ultradeepwater drillships for work in the Gulf of Mexico. Two of the drillships, the West Auriga and West Vela, won’t be delivered until February and May 2013 with startup set for later that year. The third drillship already is operating and will be named at a later date (kind of like a baseball trade). The potential contract also includes mobilization fees for the newbuild units.

Another driller, Noble Corp., signed a three-year contract for one of its ultradeepwater drillships under construction and set for delivery during the fourth quarter 2013. Anadarko Petroleum contracted the Noble Bob Douglas. Startup is set for the first quarter 2014. The day rate reported by Noble is $618,000 including mobilization revenue. Noble also has two newbuild drillships under construction that are still available.

Also, the newbuild deepwater semisubmersible Ensco 8506, the last of the seven rigs  that is set for delivery this year from KeppelFELS in Singapore, is contracted to Anadarko in the Gulf from December 2012 through June 2015.

 

Transocean’s drillship Discoverer Deep Seas received a three-year contract from March 2013 through March 2016 from Murphy at a day rate of $595,000. The rig is presently contracted to Chevron until March 2013 for $450,000 a day.

Other potential contracts could go to Rowan Companies, which has three newbuld drillships under construction with deliveries scheduled for 2013 and 2014.

With high (but fluctuating) oil prices and plenty of new potential acreage to drill due to two recent successful lease sales, operators and drilling contractors are expected to announce several additional long-term, high day-rate drilling contracts for rigs destined for the Gulf. If operators don’t hurry and charter rigs for delivery during 2013, they might have to wait to begin their drilling programs in 2014 as rig deliveries are snapped up.

Below courtesy of International Strategy and Investment Group :

Rig Outlook 2012 06-27ofs


Global Offshore outlook - courtesy of Douglas Westwood :-
Global Offshore Prospects



Semi Offshore 000 2008 Drillrig Poster - Courtesy Offshore Magazine

High-End Windmill installation vessel in the market

 

The year 2011 offshore wind power market was :

• 235 new offshore wind turbines, in nine wind farms, worth some €2.4

billion, were fully grid connected between 1 January and 31 December 2011, totalling 866 MW, 17 MW less than 2010.

• 246 turbines were erected during 2011, an average of 2.6 MW per day. 81 of these turbines are awaiting grid connection.

• Three experimental foating concepts were erected, one of which was a fullscale grid connected concept.

• Offshore work began on a further fve projects and preparatory onshore work on nine new projects.

Market outlook :

• Once completed, the nine offshore projects currently under construction will increase installed capacity by a further 2,375 MW, bringing cumulative capacity in Europe to 6,188 MW.

• Preparatory work has started on nine other projects, these have a cumulative installed capacity of 2,910 MW.

Trends:  Turbines, foundations, water depth and distance to shore  :

• The average offshore wind farm size in 2011 was almost 200MW up 29% (45MW) on the previous year.

• Average water depth in 2011 reached 22.8m, substantially more than 2010.

• Average distance to shore decreased, being 23.4km in 2011 compared to 27.1km the previous year. 

Mr Keesjan Cordia, CEO of Seafox said, "The fact that Seafox 5 has already received a charter for immediate work speaks of the strength of the MPSEP design, the reputation of Keppel-made products and Seafox's track record in multi-support service jackups across the world.

"We see that demand for such vessels will continue to rise with the commercialisation of 5MW wind turbines over the next few years. Seafox 5 is a new generation vessel which will be able to out-perform existing marine assets both on cost and efficiency in wind installation. In addition, this state-of-the-art vessel has been specifically designed to meet all the requirements of both the offshore wind and the oil & gas industries in harsh environments."

Measuring 50m wide and 151m end-to-end, Seafox 5 will be among a handful of purpose-built jackups with a 1200-tonne heavy lift capacity and capable of installing both turbines and large foundations exceeding 800 tonnes in weight.

Together with its environmental capabilities, stability coverage, deck space of 3,600m2 and a variable load of 7,000 MT, it is able to outperform most other jackups and be competitive with the floating heavy lift vessels.

                                                                      Courtesy of Windydigitalchina



Seafox 5 designed by KeppelFels OTD



Designed by Keppel's research and development arm, Offshore Technology Development (OTD), Seafox 5 is a self-propelled installation jackup vessel utilising Keppel FELS' proven jacking technology. Equipped with Dynamic Positioning 2 (DP-2) capabilities, the vessel is elevated above sea level by four legs which provide 30m of clearance between the legs & crane for easy cargo access.

Seafox 5 has a large carrying capacity of up to 12 x 3.6MW turbines, three jackets or four tripods at a time, which enhances the efficiency of constructing offshore wind farms.

In addition to being well-suited for servicing offshore wind farms, it also meets the stringent operating regulations of the offshore oil and gas industry and can support a wide range of related activities such as accommodation, hook-up, commissioning, well intervention, maintenance, construction and decommissioning.

Features of Seafox 5 - A KFELS MPSEP design         

Operates in deeper waters Max. 65-70 meters

Wider operating window All-year-round

Larger deck space 3600m2

Higher loading capacity 7000 metric tonnes

Higher carrying capacity Up to 12 x 3.6MW turbines, 6 6MW turbines, 3 jackets or 4 tripods

Larger crane capacity 1200 tonnes ( Liebherr )

Accommodates bigger crew 150 people

The Group services a global range of customers with a primary focus on the Southern North Sea in Europe. It has extensive experience operating and managing assets in this region, which is known for its stringent rules and regulations, and difficult environment.

                                                             Below clip with courtesy of  "Seajacks" :

Below with courtesy of Emre Uraz, Master thesis presentation on offshore wind turbine installation analyses :

Final Presentation Emre Uraz

SEAFOX 5 RR

More on Ultra-deepwater drilling Semi-rig

Scarabeo 9 is one of the largest offshore drilling rigs in the world. It is the first (and as of 2012 the only) Frigstad Engineering developed Frigstad D90 design rig ever built. The rig is able to operate at the water depth up to 11,811 feet (3,600 m), which is classified by the oil industry as "ultra-deepwater", and its drilling depth is 15,200 metres (49,900 ft). The water depth still suitable for its operations is twice as much as for Deepwater Horizon.The drilling equipment was provided by the Norwegian engineering company Aker Solutions.

Scarabeo 9 has a length of 115 metres (377 ft) and a breadth of 78 metres (256 ft). Its gross tonnage is 36,863, dead weight tonnage 23,965, and net tonnage 11,059 tonnes. The vessel is powered by eight Wärtsilä 12V32 diesel engines. It is equipped with two cranes.

DNV Class Notation:

1A1 Column-stabilised HELDK CRANE ECO F-AM DYNPOS-AUTRO   POSMOOR DRILL

Flag: Bahamas Signal Letters: C6YV7

Port: NASSAU
Owner: Saipem Maritime Asset Management Luxembourg S.A.R.L. GT : 36,863
NT (ITC 69): 11,059

Manager: SAIPEM SPA  DWT: 23,965
Yard: Yantai Raffles Shipyard Co. Ltd. (114020) Year of Build: 2011
Dynamic positioning:  DP class 3.
Eight 4.3 MW azimuth thrusters.
Mooring system: Four double drum winches with eight fairleads for connection to pre-set system.

Ram rig:  Hydraulic dual ram rig. Both main rig and auxiliary rig have 1,000 s.t capacity and full drilling capabilities.  Set back for 50,000 ft drill string/casing in 88-92 ft stands.
Rotary table: Two 60.5” with independent drive.
Top drives:  Two top drives with 1,000 s.t capacity.
Riser tensioners:  Six in line hydraulic cylinder riser tensioners.
BOP:

Two 18.75” x 10,000 psi wp annular preventors.

Five 18.75” x 15,000 psi wp ram preventors.
Riser:  10,000 ft of 21” riser.

The rig includes quarters for up to 200 workers. There is also a helicopter deck suitable for MI8, S61, and EH101 helicopters. The rig has been described by the industry sources as "the latest technology for deepwater drilling operations".

The rig cost US$750 million to build. It was constructed at the Yantai Raffles Shipyard in Yantai, China. The contract was signed on 5 April 2006, the keel was laid on 1 April 2008, and originally the construction was to be completed in September 2009. After several delays at the Yantai Raffles shipyard it was shipped to the Keppel FELS shipyard in Singapore for extra work completion in 2010.

The rig was delivered to Saipem on 25 August 2011. On her maiden voyage to Cuba, Scarabeo 9 was escorted around the Cape of Good Hope by the Fairmount Marine owned tugboat Fairmount Glacier.


More on Semi rig design :

Two years ago, Keppel FELS delivered the third DSS 21 deepwater semisubmersible drilling rig to Maersk Drilling (Maersk) 43 days ahead of schedule and with a perfect safety record, garnering a bonus of $400,000.

Tong Chong Heong, CEO of Keppel O&M, said, “We are proud to be Maersk’s preferred partner for its fleet expansion plans. The safe and early completion of Maersk Deepwater Semi III attests to the astute choice made by Maersk to build the premium fleet with Keppel FELS, as well as the solidarity and calibre of our teams working hand in glove with one another. The success of this Series of semis is built upon our long term partnership with thought-leading operators such as Maersk, who have provided the necessary platforms for our technologies to gain market ascendance".

"The demand for modern drillings rigs has increased over the past years concurrently with the growing technical challenges we are faced with in the drilling industry. The search for new finds is moving to deeper waters and areas with complex soil conditions and more advanced drilling rigs are needed to meet those challenges. Our ultra deepwater semisubmersibles are well equipped to meet this demand,” Mr Claus V. Hemmingsen, CEO of Maersk Drilling added.

DSS Series rigs are highly cost effective exploration units capable of drilling down 10,000 m (30,000 ft) wells and operating at a water depth of 3,000 m (10,000 ft). The Series also features a dynamic positioning system, with the ability to attach to a prelaid mooring system.

DSS Series rigs are particularly well suited to drill deep and complicated wells in areas such as offshore West Africa, Brazil, the Gulf of Mexico and Southeast Asia, and may be further customised to meet the unique challenges of each location.

• Length Overall approximately 117.00 m

• Length of Pontoon 114.50 m
• Breadth Outside Pontoon 78.00 m
• Pontoon Breadth 17.50 m
• Pontoon Height 10.00 m

• Columns 17.00 x 17.50 m

• Longitudinal Distance between CL of Columns 61.50 m
• Transverse Distance between CL of Columns 60.50 m
• Length of Main Deck 78.50 m
• Breadth of Main Deck 78.00 m
• Transit draft 9.7 m

• Survival draft 16.00 m
• Operational draft (min.) 18.50 m
• Operational draft (max.) 20.50 m
• Transit displacement(Approx.) 38,960 Mt
• Survival displacement(Approx.) 48,295 Mt

Semi Rig Equipment1


Courtesy of Maersk Drilling

What is good leadership and the "Real Leader" ?

Straits Times, 4 Aug, Laurence Lien

The writer is a Nominated Member of Parliament who is the chief executive of the National Volunteer and Philanthropy Centre. He is also acting CEO of the Community Foundation of Singapore and chairman of the Lien Foundation. Some extracts he wrote below :

We all agree that good leadership is critical for the long-term success of any company, non-profit organisation, corporation  or government. Our political leaders have certainly emphasised this. But what we often diverge on is what constitutes good leadership. Mr Lee Kuan Yew's Hard Truths To Keep Singapore Going, said that talented leaders form a very small percentage of the population and consequently, Singapore with its small base would face a dearth of good leaders.

To him, a leader must have the basic qualities of high IQ, EQ, leadership stamina, integrity, determination and resourcefulness. Seventy to 80 per cent is the result of genetically attained traits. "Twenty to Some may disagree with this. A trait-based theory of leadership is of limited value, because the usefulness of a particular tra30 per cent is nurturing. That's life."

it is situational. The qualities that help a person lead well in one context may be fatal flaws in another. Good leadership may not seem well-correlated with good academic results. That many from good schools take on top management positions does not make them good leaders. They may simply be good managers, fortunate to be given early opportunities. Along the way, their bosses would often become guilty of cognitive biases, such as confirmation bias, availability bias and halo effects, in accelerating their career progression.

Leadership values are of importance. The most important among these include a high sense of purpose, integrity, humility, moral courage and a willingness to listen. Leaders need a high sense of purpose as the job is never done, with new opportunities and threats always emerging. Purpose, more than vision, shapes us in the present. You can be top dog one day, and a disaster the next. Ask photo giant Kodak, which recently filed for bankruptcy.

Humility is critical. A good leader accepts that he cannot be good at everything or have all the answers. Integrity and moral courage are also essential because leadership invariably encounters people's resistance and perceived losses, and these values help you stay the course through the heat of the conflict generated.

The willingness to listen to the diverse positions and concerns of people helps to ascertain what people are resonating to so that these are incorporated into the problem-solving process.

The difference between traits and values is that you are born with the former while the latter is nurtured. I would say leadership is two-thirds nurture and only one-third genetic. This gives us hope that good leaders are not a narrow and predestined group, and that more candidates can be trained and developed to be more effective leaders.

What then is leadership? According to Dr Dean Williams, who teaches leadership at Harvard University, most leadership models are more about gaining and exercising authority than enacting real leadership. They focus primarily on leading in unsophisticated environments and unduly emphasise the role of the leader in "articulating a vision", "showing the way", and generating "loyal followers".

Fundamentally, leadership is a process of mobilising people to confront and deal with problematic realities for the purpose of making progress in improving the human condition. This often requires getting the people to change their values, habits, practices and priorities.

Counterfeit leadership, on the other hand, provides false solutions and allows the group to bypass tough problems and pursue the easy path. Leadership is a complex activity of challenge and engagement. It is a journey, not a destination.

What is the state of leadership in Singapore? Certainly, our national leaders pass muster as people with aspiration, integrity, and drive. They generally look long term, sense opportunities and threats in the environment and engage citizens on these issues.

Mr Lee himself has often displayed his ability at getting Singaporeans to confront challenges, and shift their values and mindsets and accept new policies. A good example was how he got Singaporeans to accept the bilingual policy. The learning journey was well-paced and resulted in a shared understanding of the problem and the policy.

However, the global and domestic environments are changing rapidly. We face complex social issues, which the Government has limited direct control over. Citizens have widening interests and values, and are much more expressive of their opinions and desires. It is hence an illusion that technical fixes, developed by an elite small group, can resolve the messy and interconnected problems we face today.

Yet, because it has served us well in the past, we still embrace the "great man" idea of leadership. The expectation is that a carefully selected cadre of national leaders with supreme intelligence and deep commitment to Singapore would have the most accurate diagnosis of reality and the best answers, even when that is an unrealistic burden to place on any man, no matter how talented.

The danger here is that when a "great man" fails to deliver or cannot feed the people's hungers, he can be swiftly deauthorised by the group. The sudden surge in citizens' anger online in the wake of last year's general election is evidence of this.

There is also a danger of choosing a group of leaders with traits and backgrounds that are too similar. When I was a young bureaucrat attending a course for administrative officers, 10 out of the 12 participants, when tested, had the same personality profile! The limited cognitive and personality diversity of a leadership group may be good for producing loyalty and common thinking, but it can be a serious impediment when dealing with complex challenges.

The Government's belief seems to be that they mainly need to improve their communication and persuasion techniques. But the bigger problem is the increasing dependency on Government to solve all problems, big and small. That dependency is perpetuated both by the Government and by citizens who demand that the Government "fixes" every problem.

Citizens need to be stirred to take greater responsibility for the problem solving and creative work in the community. The Government needs to involve and entrust citizens more proactively in the hard and messy (but creative, solution-making and opportunity-enhancing) work that produces societal progress. Apart from developing a sense of agency, this ensures increased commitment to the implementation of the solutions and policies adopted.

Sometimes, members of the establishment are too quick to judge those who passionately espouse differing views as being against the interests of Singapore. This often disenfranchises the very people who may be their best partners, because they bring a piece of the complexity of the problem to the table and care deeply about the problem. Specifically, non-profits should become valued partners and co-creators in the problem solving process.

In short, any Government will have to encourage the expression of real leadership at all levels of society in order to ensure that the nation can more swiftly adapt and respond to the demanding challenges confronting all in the fast-changing times. 

Buckingham and Coffman state (authors of the best selling book “First, Break All the Rules”, 1999) good leadership skills are demonstrated in a leader who says:   “You come to work with me and I’ll help you be as successful as possible: I’ll help you grow: I’ll help you make sure you’re in the right role; I’ll provide the relationship for you to understand and know yourself. And I want you to be more successful than me.”

If you are to remember anything about great leadership, some good leadership skills :  

1) Communication with your stakeholders vital. Good communication involves listening to what people have to say. Active listening skills, making sure that you really have understood your follower. Ask appropriate questions to help you understand and gather the information you need.

2) Set achievable goals.  Give them a vision something to strive towards. With inexperienced followers you may set the realistic goals for them, with more experienced followers discuss the goals. Make sure the goals you set are specific.

3) Define the expectations. Let people know what is expected of them and check that they understand.

4) Monitor appropriately. Inexperienced followers will require closer monitoring than more experienced followers.

5) Give feedback –based on their results. Feedback can help people specifically with the tasks they are involved with and also make them feel valued. Everyone likes to feel that what they are doing is worthwhile and valued.

6) Diagnose for any particular task they have to perform. Figure out what it is that they need from you as their leader - do they need direction or do they just need some support?

7) Be flexible. Inexperienced followers will need a more directive style than experienced followers. Empower and trust experienced followers – give them some slack. Involve more experienced followers in your decision making if it affects them.

8) Keep your team informed. Give them the “big picture” - engage their hearts as well as their minds

The “Good” leader

There will always be debates about what is good or great leadership in a business context. Creation of shareholder value will always be high among the criteria considered, as indeed it should be. But as societal values embrace broader concerns, as we judge not only what these leaders appear to have achieved but also how they have done it, as we assess leaders not just in terms of their achievements but on their contributions to the societies within which they operate, I suspect that the emphasis will shift toward the goodness of leadership as described in this article as a necessary condition for leadership greatness.

There is an argument to be made that, given a long enough time frame, “Goodness” and “Greatness” as suggested by Jim Collins converge into one and the same thing. That may turn out to be the case but there is too much press given to leaders who have yet to achieve either. Perhaps it is we – the public, who look to our business leaders to drive the prosperity of this and future generations – who need to be more restrained in granting this ultimate accolade and granting someone the title a “good leader.”

The Next Generation Y and their values

Straits Times July 23, 2012

SINGAPORE'S 'Linksters' view themselves as global citizens, are optimistic about the future and their values are firmly entrenched in the family.

These traits showed up when The Straits Times spoke to 200 students between the ages of 13 and 19 last month. They were asked about their social and economic backgrounds and current influences in face-to-face interviews.

Broadly, they have grown up in small, more affluent households with an average of 3.5 members. By contrast, the Department of Statistics had it that the average teenager in 1970 grew up in a household with 5.4 family members, and in 1990, with 4.2 members.

Twenty years ago, just over half - or 51.5 per cent - of families lived in HDB four-room flats or larger, including private housing. In 2010, this number had jumped to 74.4 per cent. In the Straits Times poll, 167 lived in such flats, or 83.5 per cent, including private housing.

More than a quarter, 26.7 per cent of respondents, lived in households with a maid. Almost everyone had at least one computer at home - about 50 per cent had two or three. About 50 per cent also owned their own cameras and music players, while about 40 per cent had portable game consoles.

Culturally, Linksters feed off viral videos, ubiquitous social media and live Twitter updates. The result: a heightened awareness of world issues, even if they do not act on it. Up to 72.5 per cent agreed they 'felt strongly' on issues such as animal welfare and poverty, but only a third - 32.1 per cent - were doing something about it.

Interview results also suggested an ambivalence towards local politics. When asked if they felt they mattered in the development of public policy, most indicated a 'neutral' response.

Like Gen Y a decade ago, many Linksters grow up in homes with live-in maids; they have fewer siblings and more disposable income.

Linksters come from even smaller households, where families have shifted from a 'parent- centric' to a 'child-centric' dynamic, as sociologist Tan Ern Ser of the National University of Singapore put it.

Their parents dote on them and shield them from hardships such as deprivation, he said.

But though they take these material things for granted, they say they do not seek affluence. They aspire towards loftier ideals and, nurtured by Internet connectedness, identify themselves as global citizens (see table).

These results from The Straits Times' interviews echo the findings of Singapore-based LifeWorkz, a training and management consultancy specialising in work-life and generation issues.

Having observed qualitative focus groups of more than 500 young people in four societies (China, India, Singapore and Hong Kong), it found that teens today regard personal time as a 'premium commodity'. Globally, Linksters are similar, they are less worried about bread-and-butter issues and more likely to 'choose where they want to live, then find work there'.

They set high career goals. 'For example, they will be asking to be posted to London and New York, not the far-flung parts of China. There is a lot of work in emerging countries, but this generation may not want to go there,' said Ms Liew-Chng, referring to youth generally across countries.

Associate Professor Tan calls them 'post-materialist', unconcerned about fulfilling basic needs because they have never had to worry about money. They are also less traditional in their ways.

Linksters use phones as an active medium - for exchanging news and information, and to express themselves. Reaching a wide community through a mobile phone tops their list of priorities.

But when it comes to work, being 'offline' is a prized commodity. For instance, they may not want to take on jobs that require them to carry BlackBerry devices and answer e-mail 24/7. As consumers, this interconnectedness has made them a homogenous demographic. Universally, Linksters are exposed to the same brands and marketing, as geographical location has become irrelevant.  As they come of age, businesses, employers and even governments will want to steel themselves for this demanding generation: They want things fast, flexible and in tune with their beliefs. To meet the challenges of crashing economies and global unemployment, they must be prepared.

They are not reticent, like Gen X-ers or Baby Boomers, about making themselves heard.

With courtesy of COE ( Center for Organizational Effectiveness )

Collaborating With Gen Y